Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Ham-Kam.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 July 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Aspmyra Stadion, Bodo/Glimt have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ham-Kam have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 1.00 PPG lead over Ham-Kam (2.50 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Bodo/Glimt have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 8 meetings, with Ham-Kam managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bodo/Glimt and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 50% versus Ham-Kam 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 71% | Ham-Kam 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.54 xG and Ham-Kam 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.271 / defence 0.655 | Ham-Kam attack 1.075 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.214. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — their λ of 2.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.655 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Bodo/Glimt games / 42 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 74% | Draw 16% | Ham-Kam 10%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Ham-Kam 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.40 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 20% | Ham-Kam 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 74% | Draw 16% | Ham-Kam 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 53% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.54 / Ham-Kam 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.271 / def 0.655 | Ham-Kam attack 1.075 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Ham-Kam xG
53%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 22 July 2026 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam?
Bodo/Glimt 3 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 74% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam?
Record (8 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 5W | Draws 2 | Ham-Kam 1W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Ham-Kam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.54. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (1.07x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
74%
1.36
16%
6.19
10%
9.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.40
0.85
Ham-Kam xG
1.36
74%
Home win
6.19
16%
Draw
9.85
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
8%
12.74
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
1%
125.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.85 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 42 games, going 30W 6D 6L for 2.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.31 PPG from 42 outings (15W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 16W 1D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (3W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ham-Kam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.74 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.48 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam in 62%.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 30W 6D 6L in their last 42 games (2.29 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 15W 10D 17L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Ham-Kam away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.45 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 3-0 on 11 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
1
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 6, Ham-Kam have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 35%, Ham-Kam 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Bodo/Glimt and 60% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Ham-Kam in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 55% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 60% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Ham-Kam 3-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.54 xG and Ham-Kam 0.85 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ham-Kam landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.27 / defence 0.66 against Ham-Kam attack 1.07 / defence 1.17, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 74% | Draw 16% | Ham-Kam 10%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 71%, Ham-Kam 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.