Rosenborg 4-2 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Stabaek in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rosenborg's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Stabaek (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Stabaek's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Rosenborg 1W, Stabaek 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2020, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Stabaek — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 53% versus Stabaek 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 63% | Stabaek 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.80 xG and Stabaek 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.419 / defence 1.092 | Stabaek attack 0.878 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.298. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.419 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Rosenborg games / 33 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 49% | Draw 26% | Stabaek 25%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Stabaek 4.00. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Stabaek 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 49% | Draw 26% | Stabaek 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Rosenborg 1.80 / Stabaek 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.419 / def 1.092 | Stabaek attack 0.878 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Stabaek xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Stabaek kick off?
Rosenborg vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Rosenborg 4 - 2 Stabaek.
Where is Rosenborg vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Stabaek part of?
Rosenborg vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 49% chance of winning, Stabaek a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rosenborg and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stabaek?
Record (2 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Stabaek in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Stabaek (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.42x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (0.88x) against Rosenborg's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 36/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.80
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.04
1.24
Stabaek xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
4%
24.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.24 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 15W 7D 8L from 30 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Stabaek, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 9L across 30 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stabaek heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 10W 3D 2L from 15 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stabaek's away record stands at 4W 6D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.37 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Stabaek
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 games (1.73 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Stabaek away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.20 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Stabaek in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 0-3 on 5 Jul 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rosenborg
3
Draws
0
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 3, Stabaek have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when Rosenborg 1-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Stabaek?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 67%, Stabaek 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Rosenborg and 67% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stabaek in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rosenborg's games and 60% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Rosenborg's matches and 67% of Stabaek's.
Do Rosenborg and Stabaek tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Stabaek 4-2 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.80 xG and Stabaek 1.24 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.42 / defence 1.09 against Stabaek attack 0.88 / defence 0.86, drawn from 36/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 49% | Draw 26% | Stabaek 25%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 63%, Stabaek 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Stabaek's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stabaek (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.