Moss vs Haugesund – Match Report

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Stalemate at Moss's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Melløs Stadion, Relegation Round, as Moss and Haugesund drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Moss 1.61 xG and Haugesund 1.27 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Moss fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moss attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Haugesund attack 0.86 / defence 1.29, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Moss 45% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 30%, with Moss to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights