Moss 0-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Moss at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moss vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Moss and Haugesund meet at Melløs Stadion in Eliteserien, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 December 2024 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Moss 1.61 xG and Haugesund 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moss attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Haugesund attack 0.860 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.284. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Moss's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Moss games / 60 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Moss 45% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 30%. Fair-value odds: Moss 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Haugesund 3.33. Moss hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Moss as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Moss if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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