Moss vs Haugesund – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Moss's attack at 0.85x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.86x) against Moss's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 0/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Moss Win
45%
2.21
24%
4.08
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Moss xG
Total xG
2.88
1.27
Haugesund xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
6%
16.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moss vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Moss and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Moss and 1.27 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Moss vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.