Lillestrom 3-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees ODD Ballklubb travel to Åråsen Stadion to take on Lillestrom. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Lillestrom have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom at Åråsen Stadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Lillestrom are significantly better at Åråsen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. ODD Ballklubb's 0.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Lillestrom's 0.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Lillestrom, 2 for ODD Ballklubb and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–2 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lillestrom trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 58% versus ODD Ballklubb 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 66% | ODD Ballklubb 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.35 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.855 / defence 1.306 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.877 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.227. Data: 55 Lillestrom games / 55 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 36% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 38%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | ODD Ballklubb 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Lillestrom dominate the H2H record, yet ODD Ballklubb are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 70% | ODD Ballklubb 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 36% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Lillestrom 1.35 / ODD Ballklubb 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.855 / def 1.306 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.877 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.41
ODD Ballklubb xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Lillestrom 3 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 36% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (7 meetings): Lillestrom 4W | Draws 1 | ODD Ballklubb 2W.
What form are Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lillestrom's attack at 0.85x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
36%
2.77
25%
3.92
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.76
1.41
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.41 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lillestrom come into this having played 55 games, going 19W 7D 29L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.11 PPG from 55 outings (15W 16D 24L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lillestrom on 1.16 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lillestrom's home form reads 11W 4D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 0.85 points per game from 27 outings (5W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lillestrom are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.22 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 19W 7D 29L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 15W 16D 24L in their last 55 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.37 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Lillestrom won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lillestrom's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Lillestrom
1
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb?
From 8 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 5, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Lillestrom 3-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 67%, ODD Ballklubb 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Lillestrom and 56% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lillestrom's games and 52% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Lillestrom's matches and 56% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lillestrom run riot with a 3-0 hammering of ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat ODD Ballklubb 3-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.35 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.41 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.85 / defence 1.31 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.88 / defence 1.04, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 36% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 38%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lillestrom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 66%, ODD Ballklubb 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.16 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lillestrom win broke the near-deadlock. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.