Viking 0-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Haugesund travel to SR-Bank Arena to take on Viking. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 27 October 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Viking — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Viking have posted 4W 3D 3L at SR-Bank Arena — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Viking are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Viking in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 65% versus Haugesund 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 75% | Haugesund 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.30 xG and Haugesund 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.214 / defence 1.366 | Haugesund attack 0.697 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.364. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing Viking's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Viking games / 21 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 59% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 20%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Haugesund 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Viking (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Viking 80% | Haugesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Oct 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 59% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG Viking 2.30 / Haugesund 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.214 / def 1.366 | Haugesund attack 0.697 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Viking (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Haugesund xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Haugesund kick off?
Viking vs Haugesund kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 27 October 2020 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Haugesund?
Viking 0 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Viking vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Haugesund part of?
Viking vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 59% chance of winning, Haugesund a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Viking and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Haugesund in?
Viking (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Viking's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.76
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Viking xG
Total xG
3.60
1.30
Haugesund xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
10%
9.99
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
2%
50.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Viking and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Viking and 1.30 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Viking's recent record stands at 8W 5D 7L from 20 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 9L across 20 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Viking on 1.45 PPG, Haugesund on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Viking have managed 4W 3D 3L from 10 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 2W 2D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.25 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 8W 5D 7L in their last 20 games (1.45 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 7W 4D 9L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Haugesund away?
Viking's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.50 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Viking or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Haugesund in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Viking won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Viking
1
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 6, Haugesund have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Haugesund 1-4 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Haugesund?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Viking at 80%, Haugesund at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Viking and 50% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Viking's games and 50% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Viking's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Viking and Haugesund tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat Viking 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Viking 0-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.30 xG and Haugesund 1.30 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Viking fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.21 / defence 1.37 against Haugesund attack 0.70 / defence 1.34, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 59% | Draw 21% | Haugesund 20%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Haugesund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 75%, Haugesund 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.45 PPG, Haugesund 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.