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Shock result as Heracles defy the odds to beat Willem II 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Heracles beat Willem II 1-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.43 xG and Heracles 1.22 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.76 / defence 1.29 against Heracles attack 0.71 / defence 1.17, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 41% | Draw 28% | Heracles 31%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 48%, Heracles 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Heracles's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Heracles winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights