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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 32

Kick-off

Fri 9 May 2025

19:00

Venue

Koning Willem II Stadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Willem II Win

41%

Willem II

2.45

28%

Draw

3.53

31%

Heracles

3.23

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.4%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.2%

Home win

2 – 1

8.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.43

Willem II xG

Total xG

2.64

1.22

Heracles xG

41%
28%
31%
Willem IIDrawHeracles

2.45

41%

Home win

3.53

28%

Draw

3.23

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.83

45%

BTTS No

2.20

Clean Sheet

30%

Willem II

3.37

24%

Heracles

4.16

Win to Nil

12%

Willem II

8.27

7%

Heracles

13.46

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.1 8.7 5.3 2.1 0.6 0.2
1 10.2 12.4 7.5 3.0 0.9 0.2
2 7.2 8.8 5.4 2.2 0.7 0.2
3 3.4 4.2 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1
5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.426
λ Away (xG) 1.215
Total xG 2.641
League avg home goals 1.611
League avg away goals 1.328
Willem II attack strength 0.757
Willem II defence strength 1.295
Heracles attack strength 0.707
Heracles defence strength 1.170
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 31 / 65