Willem II 1-2 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 41%, yet in-form Heracles provide a compelling counter-argument — this Willem II vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Willem II host Heracles at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Willem II — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Heracles have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Heracles are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Willem II have won 1, Heracles 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Heracles in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 58% versus Heracles 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 48% | Heracles 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.43 xG and Heracles 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.757 / defence 1.295 | Heracles attack 0.707 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.328. Willem II's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Willem II games / 65 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 41% | Draw 28% | Heracles 31%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Heracles 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Heracles (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 70% | Heracles 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 41% | Draw 28% | Heracles 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Willem II 1.43 / Heracles 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.757 / def 1.295 | Heracles attack 0.707 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Willem II (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Heracles xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Heracles kick off?
Willem II vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 May 2025 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Heracles?
Willem II 1 - 2 Heracles.
Where is Willem II vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Heracles part of?
Willem II vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 41% chance of winning, Heracles a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Willem II and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Heracles?
Record (5 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 2 | Heracles 2W.
What form are Willem II and Heracles in?
Willem II (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Heracles (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.76x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.53
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.64
1.22
Heracles xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
7%
13.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Willem II and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Willem II and 1.22 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II come into this having played 65 games, going 28W 15D 22L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 1.05 PPG from 65 outings (17W 17D 31L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Heracles — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Willem II's home form reads 16W 6D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.66 points per game from 32 outings (5W 6D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.22 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
Heracles
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Heracles in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 28W 15D 22L in their last 65 games (1.52 PPG), while Heracles have gone 17W 17D 31L in their last 65 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Heracles away?
Willem II's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.69 PPG; Heracles away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Willem II's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Willem II
2
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Heracles?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 1, Heracles have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Willem II 1-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 66%, Heracles 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Willem II and 59% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 66% of Willem II's recent matches and 44% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Willem II's matches and 59% of Heracles's.
Do Willem II and Heracles tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Heracles in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Heracles defy the odds to beat Willem II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Willem II 1-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.43 xG and Heracles 1.22 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.76 / defence 1.29 against Heracles attack 0.71 / defence 1.17, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 41% | Draw 28% | Heracles 31%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Heracles win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 48%, Heracles 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Heracles winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.