Willem II 0-0 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Willem II face Fortuna Sittard.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie (matchday 9). Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 12:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Willem II have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Willem II have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fortuna Sittard (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fortuna Sittard away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Willem II, 1 for Fortuna Sittard and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 13 Mar 2022, ended Willem II 0–1 Fortuna Sittard — a Fortuna Sittard win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 78%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 62% versus Fortuna Sittard 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 50% | Fortuna Sittard 55%). Note also that Fortuna Sittard surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Willem II recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 78% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.57 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.895 / defence 0.948 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.770 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.280. Fortuna Sittard's attack rating of 0.770 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Willem II's last 8 games and Fortuna Sittard's last 42.
Result probabilities: Willem II 51% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Sittard 21%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.95 | Draw 3.63 | Fortuna Sittard 4.71. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Willem II's last 10 home games and Fortuna Sittard's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Willem II 50% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Sittard 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 9 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 12:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 51% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Sittard 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Willem II 1.57 / Fortuna Sittard 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.895 / def 0.948 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.770 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Willem II (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Fortuna Sittard xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard FAQs
What time does Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 12:15 UK time on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Willem II 0 - 0 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 9) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 51% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Willem II and Fortuna Sittard will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.90) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.77x) against Willem II's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Willem II's last 8 games and Fortuna Sittard's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
51%
1.95
28%
3.63
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.51
0.94
Fortuna Sittard xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
4%
22.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Willem II and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Willem II and 0.94 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Willem II have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 25W 10D 7L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Fortuna Sittard's form line: 12W 12D 18L from 42 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Willem II have posted 2.29 PPG from their last 21 home games (15W 3D 3L).
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 3W 6D 12L from their last 21 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortuna Sittard's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.07 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Willem II (Home) vs Fortuna Sittard (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Willem II
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard Form FAQs
What form are Willem II and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 25W 10D 7L in their last 42 games (2.02 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 12W 12D 18L in their last 42 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Willem II's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.29 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Willem II and Fortuna Sittard, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Fortuna Sittard have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 0W 2D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Willem II
2
Draws
3
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Fortuna Sittard?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Willem II have won 0, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Willem II 0-1 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 67%, Fortuna Sittard 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Willem II and 52% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Willem II and Fortuna Sittard matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Willem II's recent matches and 29% of Fortuna Sittard's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Willem II and Fortuna Sittard matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Willem II's matches and 52% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do Willem II and Fortuna Sittard matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Willem II's recent matches and 62% of Fortuna Sittard's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Willem II's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 9, as Willem II and Fortuna Sittard drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.57 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.94 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Willem II fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Fortuna Sittard landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.77 / defence 1.10, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 51% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Sittard 21%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 50%, Fortuna Sittard 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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