Fortuna Sittard 1-0 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fortuna Sittard face AZ Alkmaar.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar meet at Fortuna Sittard Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fortuna Sittard have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Fortuna Sittard have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
AZ Alkmaar arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
AZ Alkmaar hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AZ Alkmaar have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 42% versus AZ Alkmaar 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 56% | AZ Alkmaar 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.13 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.990 / defence 1.137 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.048 / defence 0.722. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.255. AZ Alkmaar's defence strength of 0.722 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Fortuna Sittard games / 41 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 27% | Draw 29% | AZ Alkmaar 44%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | AZ Alkmaar 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 60% | AZ Alkmaar 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 27% | Draw 29% | AZ Alkmaar 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.13 / AZ Alkmaar 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.990 / def 1.137 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.048 / def 0.722 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.49
AZ Alkmaar xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 0 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 27% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (6 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 0W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 6W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fortuna Sittard's attack rating (0.99) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (1.05x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
27%
3.71
29%
3.42
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.63
1.49
AZ Alkmaar xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
6%
16.53
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.49 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 11W 12D 18L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 24W 9D 8L from 41 games, 1.98 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 10W 6D 4L from 20 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.12 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Early Season
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 11W 12D 18L in their last 41 games (1.10 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 24W 9D 8L in their last 41 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.50 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Fortuna Sittard or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Sittard have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 4-0 on 1 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Fortuna Sittard
0
Draws
8
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 55%, AZ Alkmaar 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Fortuna Sittard and 60% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar in 45%; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play AZ Alkmaar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 45% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 60% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat AZ Alkmaar 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat AZ Alkmaar 1-0 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.13 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.49 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.05 / defence 0.72, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 27% | Draw 29% | AZ Alkmaar 44%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Fortuna Sittard win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 56%, AZ Alkmaar 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Sittard winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.