Ajax 1-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ajax at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajax vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Willem II travel to Johan Cruijff ArenA to take on Ajax. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024, 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Ajax have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ajax have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajax's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Johan Cruijff ArenA this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Willem II have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ajax are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ajax register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Willem II in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Ajax, 0 for Willem II and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ajax in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
Willem II in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajax 73% and Willem II 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajax 78% | Willem II 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 2.21 xG and Willem II 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.318 / defence 0.862 | Willem II attack 0.870 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.235. Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Ajax games / 9 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajax 66% | Draw 19% | Willem II 14%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Willem II 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Ajax 60% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajax vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Johan Cruijff ArenA • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajax 66% | Draw 19% | Willem II 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 54% | xG Ajax 2.21 / Willem II 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Ajax attack 1.318 / def 0.862 | Willem II attack 0.870 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Ajax (66%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Willem II xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajax vs Willem II kick off?
Ajax vs Willem II kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Johan Cruijff ArenA.
What was the final score in Ajax vs Willem II?
Ajax 1 - 0 Willem II.
Where is Ajax vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Johan Cruijff ArenA.
What competition is Ajax vs Willem II part of?
Ajax vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Ajax vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Ajax a 66% chance of winning, Willem II a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ajax and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Ajax vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Willem II?
Record (2 meetings): Ajax 2W | Draws 0 | Willem II 0W.
What form are Ajax and Willem II in?
Ajax (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Willem II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Ajax vs Willem II?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ajax's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Ajax's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
66%
1.51
19%
5.16
14%
7.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Ajax xG
Total xG
3.14
0.93
Willem II xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
7.02
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
11%
9.14
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
2%
64.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajax vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Ajax and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Ajax and 0.93 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajax vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajax come into this having played 41 games, going 20W 12D 9L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 2.02 PPG from 41 outings (24W 11D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ajax on 1.76 PPG, Willem II on 2.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ajax's home form reads 12W 6D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.85 points per game from 20 outings (10W 7D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Ajax are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 2.00 scored and 0.90 conceded. Ajax's scoring rate against Willem II's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Willem II in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajax
Early Season
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajax and Willem II in coming into this match?
Ajax have gone 20W 12D 9L in their last 41 games (1.76 PPG), while Willem II have gone 24W 11D 6L in their last 41 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajax at home or Willem II away?
Ajax's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajax at home: 2.10 PPG; Willem II away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Ajax or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Willem II in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajax and Willem II runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajax have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Dec 2021, when Ajax won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajax's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Ajax
0
Draws
0
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, Ajax have won 4, Willem II have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajax and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Willem II 1-2 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Ajax and Willem II?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajax 65%, Willem II 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Ajax) and 30% (Willem II).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajax home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajax play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Ajax's games and 60% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajax vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Ajax's recent games and 30% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajax and Willem II tend to score early?
Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Willem II in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajax edge out Willem II 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Willem II 1-0 at Johan Cruijff ArenA, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 2.21 xG and Willem II 0.93 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ajax fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Willem II landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.32 / defence 0.86 against Willem II attack 0.87 / defence 1.02, drawn from 41/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajax 66% | Draw 19% | Willem II 14%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 78%, Willem II 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajax's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajax 1.76 PPG, Willem II 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.