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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ajax edge out Willem II 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajax beat Willem II 1-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 0.64 xG and Ajax 2.01 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.73 / defence 1.33 against Ajax attack 1.16 / defence 0.55, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 10% | Draw 20% | Ajax 69%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 48%, Ajax 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Ajax's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights