🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Ajax (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Willem II face Ajax.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Willem II host Ajax at Koning Willem II Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 15:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

At home at Koning Willem II Stadion, Willem II have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Eredivisie games this season, Ajax have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Ajax's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ajax — 2.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Ajax have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Willem II.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Ajax winning.

It is worth noting that Ajax have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Willem II trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Ajax trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 85% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 58% and Ajax 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 48% | Ajax 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 0.64 xG and Ajax 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.729 / defence 1.334 | Ajax attack 1.157 / defence 0.547. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.302. Willem II's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ajax's defence strength of 0.547 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 28 Willem II games / 62 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Willem II 10% | Draw 20% | Ajax 69%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 10.00 | Draw 5.00 | Ajax 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (69%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ajax are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 60% | Ajax 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights