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Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Willem II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat Willem II 2-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.70 xG and Willem II 1.47 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Willem II landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.24 against Willem II attack 0.89 / defence 1.21, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 43% | Draw 23% | Willem II 34%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 58%, Willem II 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Willem II's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights