Waalwijk 2-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk at Mandemakers Stadion this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Willem II have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Waalwijk, 1.10 for Willem II — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Willem II in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Willem II hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 0–3 with Willem II winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Willem II have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 60% and Willem II 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 58% | Willem II 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.70 xG and Willem II 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.841 / defence 1.235 | Willem II attack 0.891 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.337. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Waalwijk games / 19 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 43% | Draw 23% | Willem II 34%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Willem II 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 60% | Willem II 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 43% | Draw 23% | Willem II 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Waalwijk 1.70 / Willem II 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.841 / def 1.235 | Willem II attack 0.891 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Willem II xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Willem II kick off?
Waalwijk vs Willem II kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Waalwijk 2 - 0 Willem II.
Where is Waalwijk vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Willem II part of?
Waalwijk vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 43% chance of winning, Willem II a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Waalwijk and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Willem II?
Record (3 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 0 | Willem II 3W.
What form are Waalwijk and Willem II in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Willem II (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.84x the league average against Willem II's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.89x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
43%
2.32
23%
4.27
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.17
1.47
Willem II xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
6%
16.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.47 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waalwijk come into this having played 53 games, going 8W 13D 32L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Willem II sit at 1.83 PPG from 53 outings (28W 13D 12L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Waalwijk's home form reads 5W 8D 13L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Willem II have taken 1.65 points per game from 26 outings (12W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.83 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Willem II in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Willem II in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 8W 13D 32L in their last 53 games (0.70 PPG), while Willem II have gone 28W 13D 12L in their last 53 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Willem II away?
Willem II's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 0.88 PPG; Willem II away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 3-0 on 15 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
1
Draws
6
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Willem II?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, Willem II have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Willem II 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 62%, Willem II 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Waalwijk) and 31% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Waalwijk's games and 54% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Waalwijk's recent games and 31% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and Willem II tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Willem II in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Willem II 2-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.70 xG and Willem II 1.47 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Willem II landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.24 against Willem II attack 0.89 / defence 1.21, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 43% | Draw 23% | Willem II 34%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 58%, Willem II 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.