Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Sittard beat Waalwijk 1-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 2.02 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.33 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.10 / defence 1.01 against Fortuna Sittard attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 53% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Sittard 25%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Sittard win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 58%, Fortuna Sittard 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.81 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights