Waalwijk 2-3 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Waalwijk face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Waalwijk and Feyenoord meet at Mandemakers Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Mandemakers Stadion this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Feyenoord (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Feyenoord are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Feyenoord hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 56% versus Feyenoord 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 58% | Feyenoord 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 0.95 xG and Feyenoord 2.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.739 / defence 1.289 | Feyenoord attack 1.549 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.269. Waalwijk's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.549 — the away xG of 2.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Waalwijk games / 48 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 12% | Draw 16% | Feyenoord 72%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 8.33 | Draw 6.25 | Feyenoord 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (72%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 50% | Feyenoord 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 12% | Draw 16% | Feyenoord 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 56% | xG Waalwijk 0.95 / Feyenoord 2.54 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.739 / def 1.289 | Feyenoord attack 1.549 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
2.54
Feyenoord xG
56%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Feyenoord kick off?
Waalwijk vs Feyenoord kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Waalwijk 2 - 3 Feyenoord.
Where is Waalwijk vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Feyenoord part of?
Waalwijk vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 12% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 72% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Waalwijk and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Feyenoord?
Record (6 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 1 | Feyenoord 5W.
What form are Waalwijk and Feyenoord in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.74x the league average against Feyenoord's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.55x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 2.54.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
12%
8.33
16%
6.14
72%
1.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 3
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.48
2.54
Feyenoord xG
8.33
12%
Home win
6.14
16%
Draw
1.39
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
8%
12.62
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
1%
105.14
28%
3.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Waalwijk and 2.54 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 8W 11D 29L from 48 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord, meanwhile, have gone 34W 11D 3L across 48 games — 2.35 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 1.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 5W 7D 12L from 24 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feyenoord's away record stands at 17W 6D 1L across 24 trips, a 2.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.58 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 8W 11D 29L in their last 48 games (0.73 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 34W 11D 3L in their last 48 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 0.92 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Waalwijk or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waalwijk have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-1 on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
1
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Feyenoord?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 0, Feyenoord have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Feyenoord 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 58%, Feyenoord 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Waalwijk and 67% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 33%; Waalwijk have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Waalwijk's games and 67% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Waalwijk's matches and 67% of Feyenoord's.
Do Waalwijk and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Waalwijk 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Waalwijk 2-3 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 0.95 xG and Feyenoord 2.54 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.74 / defence 1.29 against Feyenoord attack 1.55 / defence 0.76, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 12% | Draw 16% | Feyenoord 72%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 58%, Feyenoord 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.