Feyenoord 5-2 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face Heracles.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feyenoord host Heracles at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Feijenoord, Feyenoord have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Feijenoord.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Heracles have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Feyenoord have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Feyenoord have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Heracles have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 3–0 with Feyenoord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Heracles in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 57% versus Heracles 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Feyenoord 65% | Heracles 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.98 xG and Heracles 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.054 / defence 0.886 | Heracles attack 0.631 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.276. Data: 49 Feyenoord games / 49 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 67% | Draw 20% | Heracles 13%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Heracles 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 40% | Heracles 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 67% | Draw 20% | Heracles 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 44% | xG Feyenoord 1.98 / Heracles 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.054 / def 0.886 | Heracles attack 0.631 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Heracles xG
44%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Heracles kick off?
Feyenoord vs Heracles kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Heracles?
Feyenoord 5 - 2 Heracles.
Where is Feyenoord vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Heracles part of?
Feyenoord vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 67% chance of winning, Heracles a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Feyenoord and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Heracles?
Record (4 meetings): Feyenoord 4W | Draws 0 | Heracles 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Heracles in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Heracles (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Heracles's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
67%
1.49
20%
4.93
13%
7.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.69
0.71
Heracles xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
7.99
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
33%
3.04
2%
57.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.71 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Feyenoord have picked up 2.37 PPG on a 35W 11D 3L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles's form line: 12W 11D 26L from 49 games, 0.96 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 1.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heracles.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Feyenoord have posted 2.33 PPG from 24 outings (17W 5D 2L).
On the road, Heracles have gone 4W 3D 17L from 24 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.59 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.16 scored and 2.08 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Heracles in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 35W 11D 3L in their last 49 games (2.37 PPG), while Heracles have gone 12W 11D 26L in their last 49 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Heracles away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.33 PPG; Heracles away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Heracles been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Heracles in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Feyenoord and Heracles runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Feyenoord go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2025, when Feyenoord won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Feyenoord
0
Draws
0
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Heracles?
From 8 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 8, Heracles have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Feyenoord 4-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Heracles?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 46%, Heracles 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Feyenoord and 67% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Heracles in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 42% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Feyenoord's matches and 67% of Heracles's.
Do Feyenoord and Heracles tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Heracles in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Heracles 5-2 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.98 xG and Heracles 0.71 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Heracles outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.05 / defence 0.89 against Heracles attack 0.63 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 67% | Draw 20% | Heracles 13%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 65%, Heracles 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Heracles's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.