Fortuna Sittard 3-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Sittard Stadion plays host to Fortuna Sittard versus Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortuna Sittard have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Sittard Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Fortuna Sittard's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Waalwijk's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Fortuna Sittard 2W, Waalwijk 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Fortuna Sittard winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fortuna Sittard goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 43% versus Waalwijk 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 55% | Waalwijk 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.82 xG and Waalwijk 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.860 / defence 0.931 | Waalwijk attack 0.973 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.267. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Fortuna Sittard games / 49 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 53% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 24%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Waalwijk 4.17. Fortuna Sittard hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 30% | Waalwijk 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 53% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.82 / Waalwijk 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.860 / def 0.931 | Waalwijk attack 0.973 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Waalwijk xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk?
Fortuna Sittard 3 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 53% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk?
Record (6 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 2W | Draws 2 | Waalwijk 2W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.97x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.36
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.97
1.15
Waalwijk xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
4%
25.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.15 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortuna Sittard come into this having played 49 games, going 14W 15D 20L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 0.71 PPG from 49 outings (8W 11D 30L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fortuna Sittard's home form reads 11W 6D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Fortuna Sittard are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.54 points per game from 24 outings (3W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Sittard come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.08 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 14W 15D 20L in their last 49 games (1.16 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 8W 11D 30L in their last 49 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Waalwijk away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.62 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.54 PPG.
Have Fortuna Sittard or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Sittard have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Fortuna Sittard go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fortuna Sittard
2
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 4, Waalwijk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Waalwijk 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 50%, Waalwijk 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Fortuna Sittard) and 58% (Waalwijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 29% of games; Waalwijk in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 54% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 58% of Waalwijk's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Sittard edge out Waalwijk 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Waalwijk 3-2 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.82 xG and Waalwijk 1.15 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Waalwijk outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against Waalwijk attack 0.97 / defence 1.27, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 53% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 24%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 55%, Waalwijk 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Waalwijk's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Sittard arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.