Waalwijk 2-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Waalwijk face FC Volendam.

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Match Analysis

Waalwijk host FC Volendam at Mandemakers Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 21 October 2023 at 18:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Waalwijk stand at 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Waalwijk's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Waalwijk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, FC Volendam have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

FC Volendam away from home: 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waalwijk at 0.60 PPG versus FC Volendam's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Waalwijk have won 1, FC Volendam 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2023, ended Waalwijk 4–1 FC Volendam — a Waalwijk win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Waalwijk trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

FC Volendam trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 54% versus FC Volendam 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 66% | FC Volendam 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.92 xG and FC Volendam 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.926 / defence 1.064 | FC Volendam attack 0.888 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.406. FC Volendam's defence rating of 1.312 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Waalwijk's projected output up. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 41 games and FC Volendam's last 41.

Result probabilities: Waalwijk 51% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 26%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.98 | Draw 4.21 | FC Volendam 3.90. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.92 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Waalwijk's last 10 home games and FC Volendam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Volendam 60% (last 10 away games).

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