Waalwijk 2-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waalwijk host FC Volendam at Mandemakers Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Waalwijk's home record at Mandemakers Stadion: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Waalwijk are significantly better at Mandemakers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waalwijk at 0.60 PPG versus FC Volendam's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Waalwijk, 1 for FC Volendam and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2023, ended 4–1 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Waalwijk trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
FC Volendam trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 54% versus FC Volendam 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 66% | FC Volendam 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.92 xG and FC Volendam 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.926 / defence 1.064 | FC Volendam attack 0.888 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.406. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Waalwijk games / 41 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 51% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 26%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | FC Volendam 3.85. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 50% | FC Volendam 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 51% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Waalwijk 1.92 / FC Volendam 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.926 / def 1.064 | FC Volendam attack 0.888 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FC Volendam xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs FC Volendam kick off?
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Waalwijk 2 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Waalwijk vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs FC Volendam part of?
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 51% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Waalwijk and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and FC Volendam?
Record (2 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and FC Volendam in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waalwijk's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
51%
1.98
24%
4.21
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.25
1.33
FC Volendam xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
15%
6.85
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
4%
26.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.33 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waalwijk come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 8D 20L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 0.98 PPG from 41 outings (11W 7D 23L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.15 PPG, FC Volendam on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Waalwijk's home form reads 10W 3D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Waalwijk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.40 points per game from 20 outings (1W 5D 14L). That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.20 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 13W 8D 20L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 11W 7D 23L in their last 41 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or FC Volendam away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.65 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2023, when Waalwijk won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
0
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, FC Volendam have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when FC Volendam 3-2 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 60%, FC Volendam 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Waalwijk and 70% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Waalwijk's games and 60% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Waalwijk's matches and 70% of FC Volendam's.
Do Waalwijk and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Waalwijk edge out FC Volendam 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat FC Volendam 2-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.92 xG and FC Volendam 1.33 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against FC Volendam attack 0.89 / defence 1.31, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 51% | Draw 24% | FC Volendam 26%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 66%, FC Volendam 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.15 PPG, FC Volendam 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.