Excelsior 2-4 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Excelsior host PEC Zwolle at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Excelsior at 1.60 PPG versus PEC Zwolle's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Excelsior register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PEC Zwolle in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Excelsior in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 45% versus PEC Zwolle 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 60% | PEC Zwolle 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.81 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.914 / defence 0.952 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.852 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.390. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Excelsior games / 8 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 52% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 22%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | PEC Zwolle 4.55. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 60% | PEC Zwolle 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 52% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Excelsior 1.81 / PEC Zwolle 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.914 / def 0.952 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.852 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.13
PEC Zwolle xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle?
Excelsior 2 - 4 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 52% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Excelsior and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior and PEC Zwolle in?
Excelsior (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 0.91x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
52%
1.93
26%
3.88
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.93
1.13
PEC Zwolle xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
4%
27.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Excelsior and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.13 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Excelsior's recent record stands at 12W 9D 21L from 42 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 25W 5D 12L across 42 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PEC Zwolle by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Excelsior heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 8W 5D 7L from 20 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 11W 2D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 2.17 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 12W 9D 21L in their last 42 games (1.07 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 25W 5D 12L in their last 42 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.45 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Excelsior or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and PEC Zwolle runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Excelsior's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Excelsior
1
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and PEC Zwolle?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 1, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when PEC Zwolle 2-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 50%, PEC Zwolle 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Excelsior and 75% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Excelsior's games and 65% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Excelsior's matches and 75% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Excelsior and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Excelsior 2-4 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.81 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.13 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. PEC Zwolle outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.85 / defence 1.21, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 52% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 22%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a PEC Zwolle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 60%, PEC Zwolle 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Excelsior (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.