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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Utrecht edge out NAC Breda 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utrecht beat NAC Breda 1-0 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.93 xG and NAC Breda 1.35 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Utrecht fell 0.9 short of their projected output. NAC Breda landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.88 / defence 1.26 against NAC Breda attack 0.81 / defence 1.33, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Utrecht 51% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 27%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 52%, NAC Breda 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Utrecht's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

NAC Breda's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.63 PPG, NAC Breda 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights