Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (40%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sparta Rotterdam face PSV Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
PSV Eindhoven travel to Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel to take on Sparta Rotterdam in Eredivisie (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 18:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sparta Rotterdam at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sparta Rotterdam are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, PSV Eindhoven have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. PSV Eindhoven's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sparta Rotterdam's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
PSV Eindhoven have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Sparta Rotterdam.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended Sparta Rotterdam 1–6 PSV Eindhoven — a PSV Eindhoven win.
The H2H data backs the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 7 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
PSV Eindhoven trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sparta Rotterdam 51% and PSV Eindhoven 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sparta Rotterdam 44% | PSV Eindhoven 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.26 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.797 / defence 0.869 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.325 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.297. Sparta Rotterdam's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.26. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack rating of 1.325, which lifts their away xG to 1.49. Data: built from Sparta Rotterdam's last 63 games and PSV Eindhoven's last 63.
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 30% | Draw 30% | PSV Eindhoven 40%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 3.36 | Draw 3.33 | PSV Eindhoven 2.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PSV Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sparta Rotterdam 30% (last 10 home games) | PSV Eindhoven 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 30 | Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 30% | Draw 30% | PSV Eindhoven 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.26 / PSV Eindhoven 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.797 / def 0.869 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.325 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.49
PSV Eindhoven xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven FAQs
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 2 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 30) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 30% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sparta Rotterdam's attack rating (0.80) and PSV Eindhoven's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sparta Rotterdam's last 63 games and PSV Eindhoven's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
30%
3.36
30%
3.33
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.76
1.49
PSV Eindhoven xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
7%
14.94
11%
8.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.49 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 21W 18D 24L from 63 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five.
PSV Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 48W 6D 9L across 63 games — 2.38 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours PSV Eindhoven by 1.09 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sparta Rotterdam heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 10W 10D 11L from their last 31 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PSV Eindhoven's away record stands at 24W 1D 6L across their last 31 away games, a 2.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.94 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven in 71%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Current Season
PSV Eindhoven
Current Season
Sparta Rotterdam (Home) vs PSV Eindhoven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Rotterdam
Current Season
PSV Eindhoven
Current Season
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 21W 18D 24L in their last 63 games (1.29 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 48W 6D 9L in their last 63 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.29 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
PSV Eindhoven have won each of the latest 8 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Aug 2025, when PSV Eindhoven won PSV Eindhoven 6-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Sparta Rotterdam
1
Draws
9
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Rotterdam have won 0, PSV Eindhoven have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 52%, PSV Eindhoven 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 39% for Sparta Rotterdam and 84% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 74% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 84% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and PSV Eindhoven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 87% of PSV Eindhoven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sparta Rotterdam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 30, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.26 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.49 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.80 / defence 0.87 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.32 / defence 0.92, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 30% | Draw 30% | PSV Eindhoven 40%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 44%, PSV Eindhoven 86%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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