Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam welcome PEC Zwolle to Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 8 March 2026 at 11:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Sparta Rotterdam — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, PEC Zwolle stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
PEC Zwolle away from home: 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Sparta Rotterdam have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, PEC Zwolle 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Sparta Rotterdam 0–1 PEC Zwolle — a PEC Zwolle win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 52% versus PEC Zwolle 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 46% | PEC Zwolle 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.85 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.808 / defence 0.909 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.012 / defence 1.390. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.331. PEC Zwolle's defence rating of 1.390 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output up. Data: built from Sparta Rotterdam's last 59 games and PEC Zwolle's last 59.
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 51% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 24%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 1.95 | Draw 4.14 | PEC Zwolle 4.09. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 home games and PEC Zwolle's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sparta Rotterdam 40% (last 10 home games) | PEC Zwolle 100% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 26 | Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 51% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.85 / PEC Zwolle 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.808 / def 0.909 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.012 / def 1.390 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.22
PEC Zwolle xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle FAQs
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 26) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 51% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 0.81x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sparta Rotterdam's last 59 games and PEC Zwolle's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.14
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.08
1.22
PEC Zwolle xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
16%
6.38
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
4%
26.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.22 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Rotterdam come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 16D 23L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.17 PPG from 59 outings (17W 18D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 1.29 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sparta Rotterdam's home form reads 9W 9D 11L across their last 29 home games, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 29 away games (4W 12D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Rotterdam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.31 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 61%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam (Home) vs PEC Zwolle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 20W 16D 23L in their last 59 games (1.29 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 17W 18D 24L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.24 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
4
Draws
3
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, PEC Zwolle have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Sparta Rotterdam 2-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 52%, PEC Zwolle 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 62% (PEC Zwolle).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 76% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 62% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 83% of PEC Zwolle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle finished level at 1-1 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.85 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.22 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.01 / defence 1.39, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 51% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 24%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 46%, PEC Zwolle 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.29 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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