Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sparta Rotterdam face PEC Zwolle.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam welcome PEC Zwolle to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 4 February 2024 at 15:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Sparta Rotterdam — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, PEC Zwolle stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PEC Zwolle away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sparta Rotterdam at 1.40 PPG versus PEC Zwolle's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 80% of PEC Zwolle's (from Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 home games and PEC Zwolle's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, PEC Zwolle 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 PEC Zwolle — a Sparta Rotterdam win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 49% versus PEC Zwolle 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 56% | PEC Zwolle 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.58 xG and PEC Zwolle 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.872 / defence 1.150 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.199 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.452. Data: built from Sparta Rotterdam's last 53 games and PEC Zwolle's last 19.
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 29% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 46%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 3.46 | Draw 3.98 | PEC Zwolle 2.18. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (1.58 / 2.00) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 home games and PEC Zwolle's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sparta Rotterdam 60% (last 10 home games) | PEC Zwolle 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 20 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 29% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.58 / PEC Zwolle 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.872 / def 1.150 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.199 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
2.00
PEC Zwolle xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle FAQs
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 20) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 29% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 0.87x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sparta Rotterdam's last 53 games and PEC Zwolle's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
29%
3.46
25%
3.98
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.58
2.00
PEC Zwolle xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.39
Clean Sheet
14%
7.40
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
4%
25.62
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.00 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Rotterdam come into this having played 57 games, going 25W 14D 18L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.89 PPG from 57 outings (33W 9D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 1.56 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sparta Rotterdam's home form reads 12W 6D 10L across their last 28 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 1.79 points per game from their last 28 away games (15W 5D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 2.23 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam (Home) vs PEC Zwolle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 25W 14D 18L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 33W 9D 15L in their last 57 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.50 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
4
Draws
3
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, PEC Zwolle have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Sparta Rotterdam 2-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 54%, PEC Zwolle 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Sparta Rotterdam and 79% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 61% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 79% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 79% of PEC Zwolle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sparta Rotterdam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.58 xG and PEC Zwolle 2.00 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.20 / defence 1.13, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 29% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 46%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 56%, PEC Zwolle 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.56 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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