AZ Alkmaar 0-1 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AZ Alkmaar face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
AZ Alkmaar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 6W 2D 2L at AFAS Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at AFAS Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Feyenoord (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 2.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Feyenoord arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Feyenoord, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Feyenoord winning.
It is worth noting that Feyenoord have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 60% and Feyenoord 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 64% | Feyenoord 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.61 xG and Feyenoord 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.227 / defence 0.964 | Feyenoord attack 1.460 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.454. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.460 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 AZ Alkmaar games / 53 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 29% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 46%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Feyenoord 2.17. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.66 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 50% | Feyenoord 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 29% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 72% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.61 / Feyenoord 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.227 / def 0.964 | Feyenoord attack 1.460 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Feyenoord xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
AZ Alkmaar 0 - 1 Feyenoord.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 29% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord?
Record (5 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 1W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 4W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.46x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 2.05.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
29%
3.50
26%
3.92
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.66
2.05
Feyenoord xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.55
Clean Sheet
13%
7.74
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
4%
27.12
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 2.05 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, AZ Alkmaar have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 30W 12D 11L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord's form line: 38W 11D 4L from 53 games, 2.36 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AZ Alkmaar.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AZ Alkmaar have posted 1.88 PPG from 26 outings (14W 7D 5L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 20W 4D 2L from 26 away games — 2.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.51 scored and 0.89 conceded. AZ Alkmaar's scoring rate against Feyenoord's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Feyenoord in 60%.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 30W 12D 11L in their last 53 games (1.92 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 38W 11D 4L in their last 53 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.88 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.46 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 1, Feyenoord have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Feyenoord 1-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for AZ Alkmaar, 69% for Feyenoord — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for AZ Alkmaar and 73% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 69% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 73% of Feyenoord's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out AZ Alkmaar 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat AZ Alkmaar 0-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.61 xG and Feyenoord 2.05 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Feyenoord landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.23 / defence 0.96 against Feyenoord attack 1.46 / defence 0.82, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 29% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 46%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 64%, Feyenoord 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Feyenoord's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.92. Form held, and they took the win. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.