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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam and NEC Nijmegen finished level at 1-1 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.54 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.88 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.41 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 32% | Draw 22% | NEC Nijmegen 46%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 45%, NEC Nijmegen 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.34 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights