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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sparta Rotterdam cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Heracles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sparta Rotterdam beat Heracles 2-0 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.57 xG and Heracles 1.51 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Heracles landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.75 / defence 1.15 against Heracles attack 0.93 / defence 1.26, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 39% | Draw 24% | Heracles 37%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 45%, Heracles 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Heracles's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.22 PPG, Heracles 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights