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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 18

Kick-off

Sun 11 Jan 2026

15:45

Venue

Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sparta Rotterdam Win

39%

Sparta Rotterdam

2.54

24%

Draw

4.18

37%

Heracles

2.73

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.9%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.6%

Home win

1 – 2

8.2%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.57

Sparta Rotterdam xG

Total xG

3.08

1.51

Heracles xG

39%
24%
37%
Sparta RotterdamDrawHeracles

2.54

39%

Home win

4.18

24%

Draw

2.73

37%

Away win

Goals Markets

81%

Over 1.5

1.23

19%

Under 1.5

5.26

59%

Over 2.5

1.69

41%

Under 2.5

2.44

37%

Over 3.5

2.70

63%

Under 3.5

1.59

20%

Over 4.5

5.00

80%

Under 4.5

1.25

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

62%

BTTS Yes

1.62

38%

BTTS No

2.61

Clean Sheet

22%

Sparta Rotterdam

4.51

21%

Heracles

4.80

Win to Nil

9%

Sparta Rotterdam

11.44

8%

Heracles

13.10

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.6 7.0 5.2 2.6 1.0 0.3
1 7.2 10.9 8.2 4.1 1.6 0.5
2 5.7 8.6 6.4 3.2 1.2 0.4
3 3.0 4.5 3.4 1.7 0.6 0.2
4 1.2 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1
5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.569
λ Away (xG) 1.506
Total xG 3.075
League avg home goals 1.656
League avg away goals 1.410
Sparta Rotterdam attack strength 0.750
Sparta Rotterdam defence strength 1.148
Heracles attack strength 0.930
Heracles defence strength 1.264
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 51 / 51