🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel plays host to Sparta Rotterdam versus Heracles in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 11 January 2026 at 15:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Sparta Rotterdam have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Heracles (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Heracles away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Sparta Rotterdam, 1.10 for Heracles — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 2W, Heracles 2W, 3D.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with Heracles winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Sparta Rotterdam half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Heracles half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 51% versus Heracles 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 45% | Heracles 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.57 xG and Heracles 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.750 / defence 1.148 | Heracles attack 0.930 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.410. Sparta Rotterdam's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Sparta Rotterdam games / 51 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 39% | Draw 24% | Heracles 37%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Heracles 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights