GO Ahead Eagles 1-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GO Ahead Eagles at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GO Ahead Eagles vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GO Ahead Eagles host Waalwijk at De Adelaarshorst in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
GO Ahead Eagles — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GO Ahead Eagles at De Adelaarshorst this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, GO Ahead Eagles have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, GO Ahead Eagles have won 2, Waalwijk 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with GO Ahead Eagles winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
GO Ahead Eagles in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GO Ahead Eagles 54% versus Waalwijk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GO Ahead Eagles 51% | Waalwijk 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GO Ahead Eagles 1.84 xG and Waalwijk 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.090 / defence 1.039 | Waalwijk attack 0.659 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.474. Data: 57 GO Ahead Eagles games / 57 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 56% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 20%. Fair-value odds: GO Ahead Eagles 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 5.00. The model has a clear lean to GO Ahead Eagles (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GO Ahead Eagles at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: GO Ahead Eagles 60% | Waalwijk 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GO Ahead Eagles vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: De Adelaarshorst • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GO Ahead Eagles 56% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG GO Ahead Eagles 1.84 / Waalwijk 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.090 / def 1.039 | Waalwijk attack 0.659 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: GO Ahead Eagles (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Waalwijk xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GO Ahead Eagles vs Waalwijk kick off?
GO Ahead Eagles vs Waalwijk kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at De Adelaarshorst.
What was the final score in GO Ahead Eagles vs Waalwijk?
GO Ahead Eagles 1 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is GO Ahead Eagles vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at De Adelaarshorst.
What competition is GO Ahead Eagles vs Waalwijk part of?
GO Ahead Eagles vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win GO Ahead Eagles vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives GO Ahead Eagles a 56% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making GO Ahead Eagles the favourite.
Will both teams score in GO Ahead Eagles vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both GO Ahead Eagles and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will GO Ahead Eagles vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and Waalwijk?
Record (5 meetings): GO Ahead Eagles 2W | Draws 1 | Waalwijk 2W.
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and Waalwijk in?
GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GO Ahead Eagles's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus GO Ahead Eagles's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GO Ahead Eagles Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.17
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
GO Ahead Eagles xG
Total xG
2.85
1.01
Waalwijk xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
3%
31.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GO Ahead Eagles vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are GO Ahead Eagles and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles and 1.01 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for GO Ahead Eagles vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GO Ahead Eagles come into this having played 57 games, going 19W 17D 21L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for GO Ahead Eagles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 1.04 PPG from 57 outings (16W 11D 30L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: GO Ahead Eagles on 1.30 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
GO Ahead Eagles's home form reads 12W 9D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.64 points per game from 28 outings (4W 6D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Waalwijk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GO Ahead Eagles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GO Ahead Eagles are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.23 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GO Ahead Eagles and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
GO Ahead Eagles have gone 19W 17D 21L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 16W 11D 30L in their last 57 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GO Ahead Eagles at home or Waalwijk away?
GO Ahead Eagles's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GO Ahead Eagles at home: 1.61 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
GO Ahead Eagles's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
GO Ahead Eagles
1
Draws
3
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GO Ahead Eagles and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, GO Ahead Eagles have won 4, Waalwijk have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GO Ahead Eagles and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Waalwijk 5-3 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between GO Ahead Eagles and Waalwijk?
GO Ahead Eagles have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GO Ahead Eagles 57%, Waalwijk 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (GO Ahead Eagles) and 57% (Waalwijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GO Ahead Eagles keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Waalwijk in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GO Ahead Eagles home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GO Ahead Eagles play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of GO Ahead Eagles's recent matches and 46% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GO Ahead Eagles vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of GO Ahead Eagles's matches and 57% of Waalwijk's.
Do GO Ahead Eagles and Waalwijk tend to score early?
GO Ahead Eagles have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GO Ahead Eagles edge out Waalwijk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GO Ahead Eagles beat Waalwijk 1-0 at De Adelaarshorst, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GO Ahead Eagles 1.84 xG and Waalwijk 1.01 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GO Ahead Eagles fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Waalwijk landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.09 / defence 1.04 against Waalwijk attack 0.66 / defence 1.11, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GO Ahead Eagles 56% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 20%, with GO Ahead Eagles to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GO Ahead Eagles 51%, Waalwijk 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Waalwijk's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GO Ahead Eagles 1.30 PPG, Waalwijk 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GO Ahead Eagles win broke the near-deadlock. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.