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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PSV Eindhoven and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as PSV Eindhoven and Willem II drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 3.52 xG and Willem II 0.88 xG, a combined 4.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.72 / defence 0.83 against Willem II attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 85% | Draw 9% | Willem II 5%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 85%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 76%, Willem II 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Willem II's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.37 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights