PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 85% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PSV Eindhoven and Willem II meet at Philips Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
PSV Eindhoven's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven's home record at Philips Stadion: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Philips Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — PSV Eindhoven are significantly better at Philips Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Willem II have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Willem II have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. PSV Eindhoven's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Willem II's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for PSV Eindhoven, 1 for Willem II and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
PSV Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PSV Eindhoven 53% versus Willem II 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PSV Eindhoven 76% | Willem II 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 3.52 xG and Willem II 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.723 / defence 0.835 | Willem II attack 0.755 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.389. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.723 — their λ of 3.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Willem II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing PSV Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 PSV Eindhoven games / 21 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 85% | Draw 9% | Willem II 5%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.18 | Draw 11.11 | Willem II 20.00. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (85%) — a 80pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 4.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 85% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: PSV Eindhoven 50% | Willem II 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 85% | Draw 9% | Willem II 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 57% | xG PSV Eindhoven 3.52 / Willem II 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.723 / def 0.835 | Willem II attack 0.755 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (85%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.52
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Willem II xG
57%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
PSV Eindhoven 1 - 1 Willem II.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 85% chance of winning, Willem II a 5% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Willem II?
Record (3 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 2W | Draws 0 | Willem II 1W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Willem II in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Willem II (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PSV Eindhoven's attack at 1.72x the league average against Willem II's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 3.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.76x) against PSV Eindhoven's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 4-0 (7.9%), 3-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
85%
1.17
9%
10.87
5%
18.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
4 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.52
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
4.39
0.88
Willem II xG
1.17
85%
Home win
10.87
9%
Draw
18.48
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
3%
33.68
Win to Nil
36%
2.81
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 3.52 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.88 for Willem II, a combined total of 4.39.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 85%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, PSV Eindhoven have picked up 2.56 PPG on a 45W 6D 4L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II's form line: 28W 13D 14L from 55 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Willem II.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PSV Eindhoven have posted 2.85 PPG from 27 outings (25W 2D 0L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 12W 7D 8L from 27 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 3.25 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.76 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Willem II in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 45W 6D 4L in their last 55 games (2.56 PPG), while Willem II have gone 28W 13D 14L in their last 55 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or Willem II away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.85 PPG; Willem II away: 1.59 PPG.
Have PSV Eindhoven or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Willem II in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PSV Eindhoven have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
PSV Eindhoven
1
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 2, Willem II have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and Willem II?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 48%, Willem II 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (PSV Eindhoven) and 30% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PSV Eindhoven's recent matches and 52% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 78% of PSV Eindhoven's recent games and 30% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PSV Eindhoven and Willem II tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Willem II in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PSV Eindhoven and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as PSV Eindhoven and Willem II drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 3.52 xG and Willem II 0.88 xG, a combined 4.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.72 / defence 0.83 against Willem II attack 0.76 / defence 1.21, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 85% | Draw 9% | Willem II 5%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 85%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 76%, Willem II 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Willem II's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.76. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.