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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Heerenveen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat Heerenveen 3-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.84 xG and Heerenveen 1.60 xG, a combined 4.44. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.58 / defence 1.02 against Heerenveen attack 1.10 / defence 1.10, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 63% | Draw 17% | Heerenveen 20%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 84%, Heerenveen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Heerenveen's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights