PEC Zwolle 0-0 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 41%, yet in-form Ajax provide a compelling counter-argument — this PEC Zwolle vs Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
PEC Zwolle welcome Ajax to MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:15 UK time.
Form Guide
PEC Zwolle — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
PEC Zwolle's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Ajax have recorded 5W 5D 0L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Ajax have gone 3W 6D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Ajax's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of PEC Zwolle's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Ajax have the better record in our head-to-head data — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for PEC Zwolle.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended PEC Zwolle 1–3 Ajax — a Ajax win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Ajax have won 6 of 7 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Ajax in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 62% and Ajax 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 53% | Ajax 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: PEC Zwolle surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Ajax have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.78 xG and Ajax 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.041 / defence 0.988 | Ajax attack 1.236 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.382. Ajax have an above-average attack rating of 1.236, which lifts their away xG to 1.69. Data: built from PEC Zwolle's last 58 games and Ajax's last 58.
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 41% | Draw 23% | Ajax 37%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.46 | Draw 4.41 | Ajax 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.69) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ajax (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (PEC Zwolle's last 10 home games and Ajax's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PEC Zwolle 50% (last 10 home games) | Ajax 100% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 25 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 41% | Draw 23% | Ajax 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG PEC Zwolle 1.78 / Ajax 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.041 / def 0.988 | Ajax attack 1.236 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Ajax xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Ajax FAQs
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Ajax kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Ajax kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
PEC Zwolle 0 - 0 Ajax.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Ajax part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Ajax is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 25) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 41% chance of winning, Ajax a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Ajax will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PEC Zwolle vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (1.04) and Ajax's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PEC Zwolle's last 58 games and Ajax's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
41%
2.46
23%
4.41
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.47
1.69
Ajax xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
17%
5.93
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
6%
16.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Ajax Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.69 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 17W 17D 24L from 58 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Ajax, meanwhile, have gone 35W 16D 7L across 58 games — 2.09 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajax by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PEC Zwolle heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 13W 5D 10L from their last 28 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — PEC Zwolle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ajax's away record stands at 14W 10D 4L across their last 28 away games, a 1.86 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 1.97 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajax in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Ajax
Blended
PEC Zwolle (Home) vs Ajax (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Ajax Form FAQs
What form are PEC Zwolle and Ajax in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 17W 17D 24L in their last 58 games (1.17 PPG), while Ajax have gone 35W 16D 7L in their last 58 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.57 PPG; Ajax away: 1.86 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Ajax in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Apr 2022, when Ajax won Ajax 3-0 PEC Zwolle.
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
PEC Zwolle
2
Draws
7
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Ajax H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Ajax?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, PEC Zwolle have won 0, Ajax have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Ajax last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: PEC Zwolle 0-2 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 50%, Ajax 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (PEC Zwolle) and 61% (Ajax).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PEC Zwolle vs Ajax Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PEC Zwolle and Ajax matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of PEC Zwolle's games and 68% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are PEC Zwolle and Ajax matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 61% of Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Ajax matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 71% of Ajax's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at PEC Zwolle's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as PEC Zwolle and Ajax drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.78 xG and Ajax 1.69 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Ajax landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Ajax attack 1.24 / defence 1.03, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 41% | Draw 23% | Ajax 37%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 53%, Ajax 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajax's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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