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Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of NAC Breda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat NAC Breda 3-0 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.19 xG and NAC Breda 1.07 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NAC Breda landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.15 / defence 1.19 against NAC Breda attack 0.67 / defence 1.19, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 62% | Draw 21% | NAC Breda 17%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 64%, NAC Breda 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

NAC Breda's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.34 PPG, NAC Breda 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights