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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Wed 14 May 2025

19:00

Venue

Goffertstadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

NEC Nijmegen Win

62%

NEC Nijmegen

1.61

21%

Draw

4.66

17%

NAC Breda

6.05

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

9.2%

Home win

1 – 1

9.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.19

NEC Nijmegen xG

Total xG

3.26

1.07

NAC Breda xG

62%
21%
17%
NEC NijmegenDrawNAC Breda

1.61

62%

Home win

4.66

21%

Draw

6.05

17%

Away win

Goals Markets

84%

Over 1.5

1.19

16%

Under 1.5

6.25

63%

Over 2.5

1.59

37%

Under 2.5

2.70

41%

Over 3.5

2.44

59%

Under 3.5

1.69

23%

Over 4.5

4.35

77%

Under 4.5

1.30

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.69

41%

BTTS No

2.45

Clean Sheet

34%

NEC Nijmegen

2.91

11%

NAC Breda

8.95

Win to Nil

21%

NEC Nijmegen

4.69

2%

NAC Breda

54.13

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.8 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.2
1 8.4 9.0 4.8 1.7 0.5 0.1
2 9.2 9.8 5.3 1.9 0.5 0.1
3 6.7 7.2 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 3.7 3.9 2.1 0.7 0.2
5 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.192
λ Away (xG) 1.068
Total xG 3.260
League avg home goals 1.603
League avg away goals 1.342
NEC Nijmegen attack strength 1.150
NEC Nijmegen defence strength 1.186
NAC Breda attack strength 0.671
NAC Breda defence strength 1.189
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 66 / 32