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Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Heracles.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat Heracles 4-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.72 xG and Heracles 1.22 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.25 / defence 0.97 against Heracles attack 0.88 / defence 1.33, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 69% | Draw 16% | Heracles 15%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 69%, Heracles 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Heracles's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights