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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 22

Kick-off

Sat 7 Feb 2026

15:30

Venue

Goffertstadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

NEC Nijmegen Win

69%

NEC Nijmegen

1.45

16%

Draw

6.17

15%

Heracles

6.74

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

8.8%

Home win

Most likely

3 – 1

8.0%

Home win

2 – 0

7.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.72

NEC Nijmegen xG

Total xG

3.94

1.22

Heracles xG

69%
16%
15%
NEC NijmegenDrawHeracles

1.45

69%

Home win

6.17

16%

Draw

6.74

15%

Away win

Goals Markets

90%

Over 1.5

1.11

10%

Under 1.5

10.00

75%

Over 2.5

1.33

25%

Under 2.5

4.00

55%

Over 3.5

1.82

45%

Under 3.5

2.22

36%

Over 4.5

2.78

64%

Under 4.5

1.56

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

66%

BTTS Yes

1.52

34%

BTTS No

2.93

Clean Sheet

29%

NEC Nijmegen

3.39

7%

Heracles

15.13

Win to Nil

20%

NEC Nijmegen

4.92

1%

Heracles

102.06

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.9 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2
1 5.3 6.5 3.9 1.6 0.5 0.1
2 7.2 8.8 5.4 2.2 0.7 0.2
3 6.5 8.0 4.9 2.0 0.6 0.1
4 4.4 5.4 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.1
5 2.4 2.9 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.717
λ Away (xG) 1.221
Total xG 3.938
League avg home goals 1.634
League avg away goals 1.427
NEC Nijmegen attack strength 1.254
NEC Nijmegen defence strength 0.973
Heracles attack strength 0.879
Heracles defence strength 1.326
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 54 / 55