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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 28, as NEC Nijmegen and Heerenveen drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.23 xG and Heerenveen 1.73 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.23 / defence 1.16 against Heerenveen attack 1.10 / defence 1.07, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 49% | Draw 22% | Heerenveen 29%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 69%, Heerenveen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Heerenveen's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.48 PPG, Heerenveen 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights