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Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat NEC Nijmegen 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Sittard beat NEC Nijmegen 2-3 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.42 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.42 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.22 / defence 1.10 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.94 / defence 1.20, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 60% | Draw 19% | Fortuna Sittard 21%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Sittard win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 67%, Fortuna Sittard 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (58 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (58 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.48 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights