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Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Volendam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

NEC Nijmegen beat FC Volendam 3-0 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.18 xG and FC Volendam 0.97 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Volendam landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.21 / defence 1.22 against FC Volendam attack 0.57 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 64% | Draw 21% | FC Volendam 15%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 68%, FC Volendam 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Volendam's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NEC Nijmegen 1.43 PPG, FC Volendam 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights