🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

NAC Breda and Willem II share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 34, as NAC Breda and Willem II drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.32 xG and Willem II 0.95 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.72 / defence 1.13 against Willem II attack 0.63 / defence 1.14, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 44% | Draw 31% | Willem II 25%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 56%, Willem II 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

NAC Breda's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Willem II's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.32 PPG, Willem II 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights