NAC Breda 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 42%, yet in-form Sparta Rotterdam provide a compelling counter-argument — this NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NAC Breda host Sparta Rotterdam at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eredivisie (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 5 April 2026 at 16:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, NAC Breda stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, NAC Breda have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Sparta Rotterdam have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sparta Rotterdam — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, NAC Breda have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2025, ended NAC Breda 0–1 Sparta Rotterdam — a Sparta Rotterdam win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 55% versus Sparta Rotterdam 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 53% | Sparta Rotterdam 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.74 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.903 / defence 1.191 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.967 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.305. Data: built from NAC Breda's last 62 games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 62.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 42% | Draw 27% | Sparta Rotterdam 32%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.40 | Draw 3.76 | Sparta Rotterdam 3.15. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.74 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sparta Rotterdam (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (NAC Breda's last 10 home games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: NAC Breda 50% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Rotterdam 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 29 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 16:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 42% | Draw 27% | Sparta Rotterdam 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG NAC Breda 1.74 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.903 / def 1.191 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.967 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Sparta Rotterdam xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam FAQs
What time does NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 16:45 UK time on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam?
NAC Breda 0 - 0 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 29) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 42% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both NAC Breda and Sparta Rotterdam will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.90) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from NAC Breda's last 62 games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
42%
2.40
27%
3.76
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.24
1.50
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
6%
17.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.50 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 13W 17D 32L from 62 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 24L across 62 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 0.90 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 10W 10D 11L from their last 31 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 11W 7D 13L across their last 31 away games, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.19 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Current Season
NAC Breda (Home) vs Sparta Rotterdam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NAC Breda
Current Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Current Season
❓ NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam Form FAQs
What form are NAC Breda and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 13W 17D 32L in their last 62 games (0.90 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 21W 17D 24L in their last 62 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.29 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2024. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
NAC Breda's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
2
Draws
1
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Sparta Rotterdam?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, NAC Breda have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: NAC Breda 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 64%, Sparta Rotterdam 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (NAC Breda) and 52% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NAC Breda and Sparta Rotterdam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of NAC Breda's games and 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NAC Breda and Sparta Rotterdam matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of NAC Breda's recent games and 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Sparta Rotterdam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 64% of Sparta Rotterdam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at NAC Breda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 29, as NAC Breda and Sparta Rotterdam drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.74 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.50 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sparta Rotterdam landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.90 / defence 1.19 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.97 / defence 1.12, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 42% | Draw 27% | Sparta Rotterdam 32%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 53%, Sparta Rotterdam 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 0.90 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eredivisie fixtures — matchday 29
All Eredivisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →