NAC Breda 1-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 41% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
NAC Breda welcome Emmen to Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eredivisie (Relegation Round). Kick-off is Tuesday 21 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, NAC Breda have gone 6W 0D 4L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
NAC Breda's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Emmen stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Emmen's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from NAC Breda's last 10 home games and Emmen's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Emmen have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for NAC Breda.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Jan 2024, ended NAC Breda 3–2 Emmen — a NAC Breda win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Emmen have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Emmen in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 70% and Emmen 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 70% | Emmen 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.49 xG and Emmen 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Emmen attack 0.997 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.485. Data: built from NAC Breda's last 0 games and Emmen's last 34.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 32% | Draw 27% | Emmen 41%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.11 | Draw 3.75 | Emmen 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.49 / 1.70) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Emmen have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 1), but NAC Breda carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Emmen 5 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form NAC Breda (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (NAC Breda's last 10 home games and Emmen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NAC Breda 70% (last 10 home games) | Emmen 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Emmen | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 32% | Draw 27% | Emmen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG NAC Breda 1.49 / Emmen 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Emmen attack 0.997 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: Emmen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Emmen xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NAC Breda vs Emmen FAQs
What time does NAC Breda vs Emmen kick off?
NAC Breda vs Emmen kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Tuesday 21 May 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Emmen?
NAC Breda 1 - 1 Emmen.
Where is NAC Breda vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Emmen part of?
NAC Breda vs Emmen is a Eredivisie fixture (Relegation Round) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 32% chance of winning, Emmen a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both NAC Breda and Emmen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will NAC Breda vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.85x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from NAC Breda's last 0 games and Emmen's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
32%
3.11
27%
3.75
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.20
1.70
Emmen xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
18%
5.49
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
6%
17.07
9%
10.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NAC Breda vs Emmen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.70 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda come into this having played 40 games, going 19W 5D 16L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 0.95 PPG from 40 outings (9W 11D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Emmen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
NAC Breda's home form reads 10W 3D 7L across their last 20 home games, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 0.80 points per game from their last 20 away games (5W 1D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.02 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
NAC Breda (Home) vs Emmen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NAC Breda
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ NAC Breda vs Emmen Form FAQs
What form are NAC Breda and Emmen in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 19W 5D 16L in their last 40 games (1.55 PPG), while Emmen have gone 9W 11D 20L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Emmen away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.65 PPG; Emmen away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 May 2024, when NAC Breda won Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ NAC Breda vs Emmen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Emmen?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, NAC Breda have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Emmen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 May 2024: Emmen 0-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NAC Breda at 70%, Emmen at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for NAC Breda and 65% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NAC Breda vs Emmen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NAC Breda and Emmen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of NAC Breda's games and 65% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NAC Breda and Emmen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of NAC Breda's matches and 65% of Emmen's.
Do NAC Breda and Emmen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 70% of Emmen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and Emmen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Relegation Round, as NAC Breda and Emmen drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.49 xG and Emmen 1.70 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Emmen attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 0/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 32% | Draw 27% | Emmen 41%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 70%, Emmen 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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