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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Heerenveen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PSV Eindhoven beat Heerenveen 0-2 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.55 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.57 xG, a combined 4.12. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Heerenveen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.19 / defence 1.10 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.64 / defence 0.76, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 22% | Draw 18% | PSV Eindhoven 60%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 60%, PSV Eindhoven 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Heerenveen's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights