Heerenveen 2-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heerenveen at 53% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heerenveen vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Groningen make the trip to Abe Lenstra Stadion to face Heerenveen in Eredivisie (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 12:15 UK time.
Form
Heerenveen (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Heerenveen have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Groningen's record over their last 10 games: 5W 5D 0L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Groningen have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Groningen are 1.20 PPG clear of Heerenveen over their recent games (2.00 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Heerenveen's last 10 home games and Groningen's last 10 away games) — Heerenveen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Groningen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Heerenveen have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Groningen managing 0 and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Mar 2023, ended Heerenveen 2–0 Groningen — a Heerenveen win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Heerenveen and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Heerenveen — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Groningen — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 54% versus Groningen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 67% | Groningen 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.92 xG and Groningen 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 1.079 / defence 1.060 | Groningen attack 0.855 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.271. Data: built from Heerenveen's last 39 games and Groningen's last 5.
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 53% | Draw 28% | Groningen 20%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 1.90 | Draw 3.62 | Groningen 5.06. Heerenveen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.92 / 1.15) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet Groningen are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Heerenveen 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Groningen (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heerenveen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Heerenveen's last 10 home games and Groningen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Heerenveen 60% (last 10 home games) | Groningen 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 6 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 12:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 53% | Draw 28% | Groningen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Heerenveen 1.92 / Groningen 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 1.079 / def 1.060 | Groningen attack 0.855 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Groningen xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Heerenveen vs Groningen FAQs
What time does Heerenveen vs Groningen kick off?
Heerenveen vs Groningen kicked off at 12:15 UK time on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs Groningen?
Heerenveen 2 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Heerenveen vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs Groningen part of?
Heerenveen vs Groningen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 6) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 53% chance of winning, Groningen a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Heerenveen and Groningen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Heerenveen vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Heerenveen's attack rating (1.08) and Groningen's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.85x) against Heerenveen's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Heerenveen's last 39 games and Groningen's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.62
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
3.08
1.15
Groningen xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
15%
6.85
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
3%
34.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Heerenveen vs Groningen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.15 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Heerenveen's recent record stands at 11W 8D 20L from 39 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Groningen, meanwhile, have gone 22W 11D 6L across 39 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Groningen by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heerenveen heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Heerenveen have managed 7W 4D 8L from their last 19 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Groningen's away record stands at 10W 5D 4L across their last 19 away games, a 1.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Heerenveen are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.90 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Groningen in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
Heerenveen (Home) vs Groningen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Heerenveen
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
❓ Heerenveen vs Groningen Form FAQs
What form are Heerenveen and Groningen in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 11W 8D 20L in their last 39 games (1.05 PPG), while Groningen have gone 22W 11D 6L in their last 39 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or Groningen away?
Groningen's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.32 PPG; Groningen away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Heerenveen or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heerenveen have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Groningen in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Heerenveen and Groningen, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 18 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Groningen have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heerenveen have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Heerenveen
1
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Heerenveen vs Groningen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Groningen?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Heerenveen have won 4, Groningen have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and Groningen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2026: Heerenveen 0-2 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and Groningen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 58%, Groningen 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Heerenveen and 53% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Heerenveen vs Groningen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Heerenveen and Groningen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Heerenveen's games and 58% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Heerenveen and Groningen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Heerenveen's matches and 53% of Groningen's.
Do Heerenveen and Groningen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Heerenveen's recent matches and 74% of Groningen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heerenveen edge out Groningen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat Groningen 2-1 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.92 xG and Groningen 1.15 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.08 / defence 1.06 against Groningen attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 53% | Draw 28% | Groningen 20%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 67%, Groningen 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Heerenveen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heerenveen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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