PEC Zwolle 1-2 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar meet at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
PEC Zwolle (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at MAC³PARK Stadion, PEC Zwolle have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AZ Alkmaar away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AZ Alkmaar are 1.70 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle in recent Eredivisie fixtures (2.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for PEC Zwolle, 2 for AZ Alkmaar and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 64% versus AZ Alkmaar 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 62% | AZ Alkmaar 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.15 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.021 / defence 1.284 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.031 / defence 0.652. League average goals — home 1.727 / away 1.231. AZ Alkmaar's defence strength of 0.652 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 PEC Zwolle games / 39 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 24% | Draw 30% | AZ Alkmaar 46%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | AZ Alkmaar 2.17. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 70% | AZ Alkmaar 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 24% | Draw 30% | AZ Alkmaar 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.15 / AZ Alkmaar 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.021 / def 1.284 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.031 / def 0.652 | league avg home 1.727 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.63
AZ Alkmaar xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 September 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 2 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 24% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (4 meetings): PEC Zwolle 1W | Draws 1 | AZ Alkmaar 2W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 1.02x the league average against AZ Alkmaar's defence at 0.65x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (1.03x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
24%
4.18
30%
3.28
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.78
1.63
AZ Alkmaar xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
5%
21.31
14%
6.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.63 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 10W 10D 19L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 23W 9D 7L from 39 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (6W 3D 10L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 9W 6D 4L from 19 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.15 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 10W 10D 19L in their last 39 games (1.03 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 23W 9D 7L in their last 39 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.11 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.74 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 0-3 on 24 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
PEC Zwolle
2
Draws
4
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when PEC Zwolle 3-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 63%, AZ Alkmaar 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for PEC Zwolle and 58% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play AZ Alkmaar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 42% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 58% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do PEC Zwolle and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out PEC Zwolle 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat PEC Zwolle 1-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.15 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.63 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.02 / defence 1.28 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.03 / defence 0.65, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 24% | Draw 30% | AZ Alkmaar 46%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 62%, AZ Alkmaar 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.